Continued Weaknesses in the Kansas City Fed District

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said that manufacturing activity continues to contract in its District. Using data that was revised with new seasonal adjustments, the composite index has been negative for four consecutive months, down slightly from -1 in December to -2 in January. With the Kansas City data, we have now had four straight surveys from regional Fed banks showing contracting levels of activity (including New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond). At a minimum, this shows the degree of anxiety that it out there on the part of manufacturers.

Indeed, many of the sample comments provided in the press release tend to focus on uncertainties in the marketplace and frustrations with the U.S. fiscal situation. One individual wrote, “Economic uncertainty has made our customers reluctant to place orders more than a month in advance and it appears most are cutting their inventory on hand which further depresses orders.” Another respondent added (possibly as a reaction to the fiscal cliff deal), “Fiscal issues are not truly resolved and we remain cautious relative to all hiring, investment, and other business expansion.”

These comments flow through to the underlying survey data, as well. Despite some improvement in the index for new orders from -5 to -2, sales declined in 8 of the last 10 months. This highlights the weaknesses in the current environment. Other indicators in negative territory include production, shipments, employment, exports, and inventories. The prices paid for raw materials also appear to remain elevated even with some easing in this month’s figures.

The good news is that forward-looking expectations for the next six months continue to be positive, albeit less so than was seen in September or before. Manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic about higher levels of activity over the coming months, including an increased expectation for new orders. Capital spending and hiring plans, though, suggest only light growth ahead. Again, that is consistent with other surveys – such as the NAM/IndustryWeek one – which show manufacturers pulling back somewhat, at least for now.

 Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Markit: Manufacturing in the U.S. Picked Up in January

Contrasting with several other recent reports, Markit announced that overall manufacturing activity picked up in January. The Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.2 in December to 56.1 in January. It was the third month in a row of consecutive gains in the index, with stronger sales pushing sentiment higher.

The index for new orders increased from 54.7 to 57.7, the fastest pace since December 2011. Export orders were not as strong (down from 52.8 to 51.3), but were not contracting as they were just two months ago.

Other measures were also positive. Both output and employment were growing at a faster pace. Inventories were mixed, with raw material supplies growing again, after shrinking for five straight months, as well as finished goods contracting which was nearly unchanged from the month before). Meanwhile, pricing pressures remain modest.

Overall, the Markit PMI data show that manufacturers have begun the new year with more optimism than in previous months. It is notable that the Markit data vary from other sources, including the Institute of Supply Management’s PMI data, in that its index never fell below 50 – the threshold for contracting levels of activity. Nonetheless, the upward momentum seen in the Markit data should bode well for improvements in the ISM PMI data, which is scheduled to be released on February 1. (continue reading…)

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Manufacturing Activity in Richmond Contracts in January

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank noted contracting levels of manufacturing activity in its January survey, reversing the positive figures seen in November and December. Since the end of May 2012, its composite index of general business activity has been negative 5 out of 8 months, reflecting the slower pace of growth in the second half of the year and continuing weaknesses. This overall index decreased from 5 in December to -12 in January, its lowest level since July.

The more-downbeat assessment mirrors similar findings last week from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks. As we saw in those surveys, much of the data was negative across-the-board. For instance, the index for new orders dropped from 10 to -17, indicating a steep decline in average sales. This was undoubtedly behind much of the other negative sentiment. There were falling levels on average for shipments, capacity utilization, employment, and the workweek, as well.

Notwithstanding these declines, manufacturers in the Richmond region continue to be cautiously optimistic about the next six months. This is true even with the many headwinds that we face right now, including persistent uncertainties. There is modest growth expected for shipments, new orders, and capital spending. With that said, hiring should remain sluggish. Employment levels are expected to be the same, with an index reading of zero, for instance.

At the same time, pricing pressures have accelerated since the last survey. The prices paid for inputs increased 2.54 percent at the annual rate in January, up from 2.01 percent in December and 1.99 percent in November. This faster pace is somewhat different from the conclusion of the most recent producer price data, which found raw material costs easing in December.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Monday Economic Report – January 22, 2013

Here is the summary of this week’s Monday Economic Report:

The Federal Reserve Board’s Beige Book, released last week, noted some improvements in the economy since last month. The United States is growing modestly, and inflation appears to be in-check, at least for now. This latter point was also confirmed in the most recent price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Yet, the Beige Book also cited weaknesses in the manufacturing sector in many of its districts, with activity mixed and firms hesitant to hire. In fact, the labor market description showed the softer manufacturing market:

The Boston, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts all reported delayed hiring, often in defense manufacturing, due to fiscal cliff uncertainties. Companies in the Chicago District with trade or investment exposures to Europe reduced their hiring plans as well. Chicago reported that manufacturers are choosing to cut hours instead of reducing headcount in expectation of production rebounds in 2013. Atlanta and Kansas City cited health-care policy changes and costs as another cause for minimal hiring. On the other hand, the New York, Atlanta, Minneapolis and Dallas Districts saw the labor market firming modestly. Finally, contacts in several districts reported difficulties finding qualified workers in some specialized fields, such as skilled manufacturing, energy and IT.

Many other data points out last week tended to echo these weaknesses. Both the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks found contracting sales, inventories and employment levels in their respective districts. The Philly survey cited slower sales growth, the desire to keep costs low and uncertainties related to health care and the U.S. fiscal situation as the top reasons why manufacturers were holding back on hiring. Despite this, manufacturing production increased 0.8 percent in December, building on November’s 0.6 percent gain. Hurricane Sandy might explain part of this increase, but modest consumer spending growth was probably also a factor. Retail sales rose 0.5 percent for the month and 4.7 percent for the year. Still, even with these gains, manufacturing production was much slower in the second half of the year compared to the first half.

The residential construction sector continues to be a bright spot, with housing starts soaring to 954,000 at the annual rate in December. This represents a 36.9 percent increase year-over-year and is a clear indication that housing is recovering. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 3.38 percent—a major contributor to the recent progress in the residential market—and home builder confidence continued to grow throughout the year. I expect for housing starts to exceed 1 million units by year’s end—a major accomplishment, even as it remains well below the 2.1 million homes built in 2005 and 2006. Despite this upward movement, challenges remain, especially regarding tougher lending standards and persistent financial challenges for would-be buyers.

This week, we will learn more about the domestic and global manufacturing situation. Surveys from the Kansas City and Richmond Federal Reserve Banks will build on their mixed findings in December. Last month, the Kansas City District had declining activity for the third straight month, whereas the Richmond area noted positive growth, albeit at a slower pace. Hopefully, both districts report stronger production and sales levels to begin the new year. Meanwhile, Markit will report its “flash” Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States, China and Europe. The most recent PMI data continue to show signs of weakness in the Eurozone, with even Germany experiencing declines. This contrasts with the United States and China, which have shown some signs of progress, despite growing only modestly at best. I would expect those same trends to continue.

Chad Moutray is the chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Dispatch from the Front: The Week of January 22

President Obama attends the National Prayer Service this morning. In the evening, inauguration activities continue, with the Staff Inaugural Ball.

The Senate meets this morning and may take up H.R. 152, the House-passed measures providing relief for Hurricane Sandy recovery efforts. At some point during the week, the Senate may take up filibuster reform. Democrats and Republicans are discussing potential options this week.

The House meets today at 10:00 a.m. and will consider the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act (H.R. 307). On Wednesday, the House will likely take up a bill extending the debt limit for three months. The Majority Leader’s schedule is available here.

Senate Hearings: THURSDAY—The Foreign Relations Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) to serve as Secretary of State.

House Hearings: TUESDAY—The Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on the debt limit.

Executive Branch: Vice President Biden joins the President at this morning’s National Prayer Service and at the Staff Inaugural Ball later today.

Economic Reports: From The New York Times: “Data will include sales of existing homes for December (Tuesday); weekly jobless claims and leading economic indicators for December (Thursday); and sales of new homes for December (Friday).” The Washington Post has additional information here.

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Inauguration Offers Opportunity for a Fresh Start

As thousands of Americans gathered to celebrate the inauguration of Barack Obama, his speech invoked the challenges our nation faces to realize the dreams of the founding fathers. It is essential that our policies make it easier to do so – from STEM education to a pro-growth agenda that reduces the burdens on manufacturers.

“We the people” was the President’s refrain and manufacturers all across the U.S. are hopeful that his second term will offer an opportunity to lead our economic recovery.

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BLM Redraft of Controversial Fracking Rule a Welcome Sign for Manufacturers

This afternoon, in a victory for manufacturers and energy producers the U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management (BLM) announced it would redraft a proposed hydraulic fracturing regulation for wells operated on federal and Indian lands.  The original rule sought to make radical changes to the chemical disclosure and well construction procedures oil and gas drillers must follow before they can receive their permits to drill. 

As originally drafted, BLM’s rule duplicated existing state regulations, its costs significantly outweighed its benefits, and it would almost certainly result in delays to drilling activities. The NAM explicitly asked BLM to withdraw the proposal and better harmonize its efforts with ongoing state regulations.

Manufacturers are encouraged by this afternoon’s announcement by BLM. The NAM believes the states should be the primary regulators of hydraulic fracturing and that the federal government should not be regulating until and unless it can prove that a compelling need exists for federal intervention.

Ross Eisenberg is vice president of energy and resources policy, National Association of Manufacturers.

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CMA Recognizes Ed Youdell with Annual Leadership Award

Today, the NAM’s Council of Manufacturing Associations (CMA) awarded the annual CMA Leadership Award to Edward Youdell, President and CEO of the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association, International.

Ed received the award for his vision and drive of the inaugural 2012 Manufacturing Day. The very first Manufacturing Day took place on October 5, 2012 when manufacturers opened their doors to students and educators to expand knowledge about and improve general public perception of manufacturing careers. Ed was instrumental in making sure the national event was a huge success.

“I am humbled that an idea which started as what seemed like a bit of a pipe dream about how to bolster the image of manufacturing in America and draw attention to its great career opportunities led to this recognition,” said Youdell. “The event will continue to grow and prosper because of the dozens of organizations that now support it and the hundreds of participating companies.”

The Leadership Award was unveiled by the CMA Board of Directors in 2001 and is given annually to the chief staff officer who has done the most to further the CMA’s mission. The recipient is selected by the Chairman of the Council and is honored at the annual Winter Leadership Conference. The success of an association depends largely on the involvement of its members and we’re even more grateful to those members who take a leadership role in the CMA.

The CMA Winter Leadership Conference took place in Annapolis, Maryland on January 18 – 19, 2013. Check out photos from the event here and follow the conversation at #NAMCMA.

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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Dips Lower Again in January

The University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters report that consumer confidence dropped from 72.9 in December to 71.3 in January. This follows the steep fall in December – after the election and leading up to the tense fiscal cliff negotiations – from 82.7 in November.

Sentiment about both the current and future economy dipped, with the largest decline related to the present environment. The index for present conditions dropped from 87.0 to 84.8; whereas, the forward-looking measure fell from 63.8 to 62.7.

In addition to frustrations related to the political process, consumer reactions to reduced paychecks as a result of the expiration of the payroll tax holiday could partially explain this decrease. The worry would be that lower consumer sentiment could lead to reductions in spending, and to the extent that this is related to less disposable income, that might be expected. So far we have not seen these declines, as retail sales were reported to have increased 0.5 percent in December.

Inflationary expectations in the University of Michigan survey remain modest, but did pick up slightly in December. Consumers expected prices to rise 3.4 percent over the next 12 months, up from 3.3 percent from December and 3.1 percent in November.

Chad Moutray is chief economist, National Association of Manufacturers.

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Manufacturers Welcome U.S. Engagement in International Services Agreement Negotiations

Manufacturers applaud Tuesday’s announcement by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) that the Administration plans to join negotiations on an International Services Agreement (ISA). We recognize the importance of promoting and liberalizing international trade in services given the high degree to which manufacturers rely on a wide range of services.

Improved services trade results in lower costs for manufacturing, as well as improved productivity, competitiveness, product quality and safety.  International services trade also enables manufactures to comply with regulatory standards, thereby increasing their sales in foreign markets.

Manufacturers depend on a broad array of services, including certification and testing; financial and business, such as investment, accounting, and legal expertise; energy and environmental; engineering and design; information and communications technology; maintenance services, including the installation and servicing of products; retail and distribution; and, transportation and logistics.

Given the importance of services in so many areas to help grow manufacturers’ opportunities overseas, the NAM strongly supports the liberalization of services trade in multilateral, plurilateral, and bilateral negotiations. An ISA would boost trade in services, improving manufacturers’ competitiveness in the global market, expanding U.S. exports, and reducing manufacturers’ costs. The NAM looks forward to monitoring negotiators’ progress on ISA talks to ensure that they provide gains for manufacturers, too.

Jessica Lemos is director of international trade policy, National Association of Manufacturers.

 

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